After months of debating and campaigning on both sides, the results are in and 52% favour leaving the EU. This was actually something we predicted over a week ago when doing some analysis using our Lifestyle geodemographic classification system, RESONATE©.
It was a closely fought battle between the Remain and Leave camps. Earlier on in the year in February, Remain had held a consistent lead over Leave, with about 55 percent of support according to the polls. However, the nearer it got to the big day, the more support for the Leave campaign seemed to be growing. As the campaign progressed, it seemed that a number of factors would affect the result including the turnout, which way the 1 in 10 undecided voters would vote and the weather.
We conducted some analysis to find out which way people would vote and predicted a 53% vote to Leave. We arrived at this figure by profiling every type of neighbourhood in the UK and each lifestyle category based on media reporting and analysis. This was then scaled by the distribution of voters within each category in every street across the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland.
Our analysis indicated that the battlegrounds of undecided voters were concentrated in areas categorised as ‘Mature Families & Traditional Values’, ‘Wealthy Families in Village, Small Towns and Rural Locations’ and ‘Modern Families, Modest Means’.
As we predicted by using RESONATE©, the result favoured the Leave campaign. We put this down to a number of factors; firstly, the overall turnout was 72%, higher than the general election. Secondly, some of the areas that favoured Leave were traditional labour heartlands, ‘Blue Collar Heartlands‘ where the turnout was 80%.
We believe that this in the end was a deciding factor. The neighbourhoods more likely to vote leave outnumbered those likely to vote remain based on our database. With a very high turnout the result we predicted proved to be accurate.
RESONATE© is a classification of all households and streets across Great Britain and Northern Ireland and has grouped every neighbourhood into a number of similar categories based on a wide range of demographic, environmental, lifestyle and socio-economic data.
For more information about RESONATE Lifestyle & demographic data, contact us on 01926 421408.